Early Drought Caution
Combined storage — 27 April 2026
47%

The lowest Cape Town has been at this point in the calendar since Danger Year 2018.

vs last year
−21%
Lowest April since
Apr 2019
Cape Town dam basin cross-section A bowl-shaped cross-section of combined dam storage. Current level is 47.3%. The healthy reference line sits at 70% and the Day Zero threshold at 20%. HEALTHY AVG — 70% WHERE LEVELS SHOULD BE NOW — 47.3% EARLY DROUGHT CAUTION DAY ZERO — 20% TAPS RUN DRY AT THIS LEVEL FULL 100% ↑ ↓ EMPTY 0% 100% 70% 47% 20% 0%
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capetowndamlevels.co.za 28 Apr 2026
The system in six readings

April delivered.
And May is bringing more.

What just fell, what just left the tap, and what the sky is bringing next — read in pairs, as cause and effect.

01 Supply — What came in
01 Rainfall · April · 3 stations

Twice the usual
April rain.

2.0× normal
Theewaterskloof 81mm · 1.5×
Voëlvlei 90mm · 2.2×
Wemmershoek 157mm · 2.3×

Verdict Much wetter than normal — close to twice the typical April.

02 Storage · 6 dams combined

The dams felt it —
up 2.6 points.

47% was 45% last week
2-week trend +2.6 pts
20 Apr 2026 27 Apr 2026

Verdict Rising, but still inside the caution band.

02 Demand — What went out
03 Daily demand · vs target

The city is using
less than it should.

892Mℓ 83 Mℓ under target
Used today Target 975 Mℓ

Verdict 9% below the daily target — the kind of week that buys headroom.

04 Per person · ℓ/day · 12-mo avg

8 litres less,
per Capetonian.

152ℓ/day −8 ℓ vs trailing avg
Trailing 12-month average
0 ℓ 200 ℓ

Verdict A small but real saving — sustained, this is what shaves a percentage point off summer drawdown.

03 Forecast — What's coming next
05 Forecast · 7 days · 6 catchments

4 times a typical
week of rain.

4.0× normal
Day-by-day · mm 44 mm vs typical 11 mm
typical · 2 mm/day
0
Thu
0
Fri
4
Sat
0
Sun
12
Mon
6
Tue
24
Wed

Verdict Wed looks like the wettest day.

06 Where it lands · per catchment

Each dam, and
what's coming for it.

5.1× a typical week
Each dam · % full now below 60% 60%+ safe 75% comfortable
Theewaterskloof 47% +40mm 3.0× normal
Voëlvlei 50% +32mm 8.8× normal
Berg River 46% +61mm 5.7× normal
Wemmershoek 50% +55mm 5.5× normal
Steenbras Upper 57% +57mm 3.9× normal
Steenbras Lower 37% +69mm 3.7× normal

Verdict Steenbras Lower (37% full) and Berg River (46% full) get the biggest soaking.

Looking ahead Two soaking weeks back-to-back is the kind of run that meaningfully shifts the May curve. The next reading will tell us how much of it stuck.

updated weekly · sun 09:00 SAST
Day Zero predictor — move the sliders

What if?

Pick a rainfall scenario and drag the consumption fader. Pin one configuration and overlay another to compare. The model runs a thousand simulated years against Cape Town's seasonal pattern and shows when the system would empty.

Rainfall scenario
Projected combined storageMedian · 25–75 band · 1,000 runs
100%75%50%25%0%APR 26JULOCTJAN 27APRTODAY · 47%
Daily consumption850ML/day
600 · drought-era1200 · unrestricted
about today's usage
What this means

Day Zero is possible — but not the likely outcome.

The line on the chart is the typical projection: it bottoms out at 26%, above the 13.5% Day Zero line. But the model also runs 1,000 different rainfall futures, and roughly 1 in 7 of them (14%) does cross Day Zero — usually around May 2027. The shaded band on the chart shows that range of possibilities.

Monthly storage · median path
May 26
44%
Jun
49%
Jul
57%
Aug
64%
Sep
63%
Oct
59%
Nov
56%
Dec
51%
Jan 27
46%
Feb
39%
Mar
33%
Apr
30%
May
26%
Jun
31%
Theewaterskloof — drag to compare

The same dam, two moments.

Sentinel-2 satellite imagery of Theewaterskloof, which holds more than half the system's capacity. On the left: May 2018, at the edge of Day Zero. On the right: today.

May 2018 · 21.4% full
April 2026 · 47.3% full
May 2018 · 21.4% full
April 2026 · 47.3% full
Exposed lakebed · total capacity reachCurrent water