The system in six readings October held its line.
October held its line.
And November starts dry.
What just fell, what just left the tap, and what the sky is bringing next — read in pairs, as cause and effect.
01 Supply — What came in
01 Rainfall · October · 3 stations · as of 2026-10-31
On track for a
normal October.
1.1× normal so far
this October so far
typical first 31 days of October
Theewaterskloof 47mm · 1.0×
Voëlvlei 34mm · 1.6×
Wemmershoek 63mm · 1.1×
Verdict On track with a typical October through day 31.
02 Storage · 6 dams combined
The dams slipped —
0.7 points off.
73% was 74% last week
Verdict Easing back, but still above the caution zone.
02 Demand — What went out
03 Daily demand · vs target
The city is over
its daily target.
864Mℓ 4 Mℓ over target
Verdict 0% over the daily target — a week that erodes the buffer.
04 Per person · ℓ/day · 12-mo avg
12 litres less,
per Capetonian.
148ℓ/day −12 ℓ vs trailing avg
Trailing 12-month average
Verdict A small but real saving — sustained, this is what shaves a percentage point off summer drawdown.
03 Forecast — What's coming next
05 Forecast · 7 days · 6 catchments
A drier-than-typical
week ahead.
0.5× normal
vs the same 7 calendar days averaged across the past 10 years
Verdict Fri looks like the wettest day.
06 Where it lands · per catchment
Each dam, and
what's coming for it.
0.5× a typical week
total forecast across the six catchments vs the same 7 calendar days over the past 10 years, weighted by dam size
Theewaterskloof 73%
+3mm .38× normal
Voëlvlei 55%
+3mm .39× normal
Berg River 94%
+10mm .74× normal
Wemmershoek 81%
+10mm .59× normal
Steenbras Upper 100%
+12mm about normal
Steenbras Lower 48%
+12mm about normal
Verdict Steenbras Upper (100% full) and Steenbras Lower (48% full) get the biggest soaking.
